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The mid-point of 2026 has brought a challenging mix of macroeconomic pressures, redefined by a major diplomatic breakthrough following the official announcement of a comprehensive US-Iran peace deal. While this historic agreement has begun stabilising energy markets and reopening critical trade routes, finance leaders must still navigate the residual ripple effects alongside structural cost inflation, shifting energy prices, and the disruptive rise of generative AI. Finance leaders are facing a unique set of challenges. When macro environments fracture, the burden of proof falls squarely on corporate leadership to steady the ship.
To understand how these events are reshaping the corporate landscape, we conducted 'The 2026 Shockwave Survey'. We gathered raw, unfiltered insights from the CFO and Finance Director community across our core sectors, Financial Services, Industry & Industry, Housing and Public Sector & Not-for-Profit.
The core takeaway? While some sectors remain comfortably insulated, the role of the finance function is undergoing a rapid evolution. It is transforming from a traditional department of historical reporting into a strategic gatekeeper driven by scenario modelling, defensive cost control, and cautious, localised growth.
Managing today's geopolitical and economic volatility requires moving past reactive budgeting into an era of aggressive adaptability. Here is what the data and the leaders revealed.
When asked how the last eight weeks have impacted their finance functions, the responses revealed a deeply fragmented market. 26% of respondents reported no change, pointing to a stark divide between the insulated and the exposed.
The Insulated Sectors
Private equity houses with portfolios concentrated heavily in B2B fintech report outstanding growth. They remain seemingly untouched by the broader market disruption. Because their infrastructure underpins necessary transactions, they continue to scale.
The Squeezed Enterprises
Companies selling into financial services, investment management, and the hedge fund space are seeing an entirely different reality. Clients are pulling back on discretionary spend, cutting costs, and refusing to absorb extra external expenses or consultants.
The Delayed Fuse
A major high-street retail brand notes that while immediate figures haven't plummeted, consumer confidence is fragile. They have explicitly built the predicted long-term negative effects of the Middle East conflict into their 3-to-10-year strategic planning. They are actively anticipating a macro squeeze on global consumer spend but watching closely to see if the planned reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will alleviate supply pressures.
"Recent impacts haven't been too big within the finance function itself, however, across the wider business we are seeing a squeeze and clients becoming far more cautious when committing to new projects."
One of the most granular responses came from a large Housing Association. Their feedback highlights how global market dislocations slice through domestic, capital-intensive industries. For them, the pressure is more structural than purely geopolitical, though the macro backdrop significantly aggravates it.
The Treasury Dynamics at Play:
This highlights a key reality of modern financial volatility: macroeconomic shocks can create isolated wins for treasury teams while simultaneously prioritising or paralysing core commercial operations.
Predicting economic outcomes in 2026 has become so complex that 30% of leaders admit they aren't modelling specific geopolitical scenarios yet, deeming the landscape too volatile to accurately map.
However, those who are modelling have completely abandoned the concept of a single, definitive forecast. With the sudden mid-June announcement of the US and Iran peace deal, the trend has shifted heavily toward multi-scenario agility, with teams stress-testing corporate cash flow across timelines of 3, 6, and 12 months of prolonged global disruption.
The biggest challenge identified by teams running these models isn't the data entry, it is the underlying ambiguity. Making multi-million pound calls with incomplete data and shifting diplomatic timelines is the new baseline requirement for enterprise survival.
Despite widespread market uncertainty, growth capital hasn't completely ground to a halt. Instead, deployment strategies have become hyper-targeted and defensive.
Geographic Safe Havens
Investment remains steady across the UK, US, and mainland Europe. Businesses with strong balance sheets are capitalising on market volatility to execute small, opportunistic M&A transactions in South America and the Netherlands, buying up distressed assets at a discount. Meanwhile, physical footprint expansion in the UAE (Dubai) continues apace, with teams anticipating a swift normalisation of regional trade routes as naval mines and technical obstacles are removed from the Gulf under the new peace accord terms.
The Alternative Asset Hedge
One fintech startup utilising gold and silver via debit currencies experienced a massive performance spike when the US dollar dipped and gold surged at the onset of regional conflict. While the announcement of the US and Iran peace framework has temporarily cooled the gold rally and stabilised energy-backed currencies, they still view alternative assets as the ultimate long-term insulation. Their primary bottleneck now is not operational performance, but rather jittery venture capital funding waiting to see if the temporary truce translates into permanent regional stability.
Technology Over Headcount
Where capital is being deployed internally, it is bypassing human capital. Budgets are flowing directly into automation, AI testing, and process efficiencies designed to permanently lower structural overhead.
The days of the back-office accountant who merely reports historical data are officially over. As economic pressures force corporate restructuring, the profile of the ideal finance team member is shifting dramatically.
Many businesses have instituted strict headcount freezes for the remainder of 2026. Others are resorting exclusively to Fixed-Term Contracts (FTCs) to maintain maximum operational flexibility. However, leaders note that relying on FTCs makes it incredibly difficult to attract top-tier talent in a competitive market.
For the teams currently in place, prolonged economic uncertainty is exposing specific capability gaps:
"Our team is exceptionally strong on the fundamentals - control, reporting, and financial discipline. Where the strain shows under pressure is around forward-looking judgement, raw commercial instinct, and the confidence to challenge or shape business decisions in real time."
Future-Proofing the Finance Function
To navigate ongoing volatility, Chief Financial Officers are prioritising two distinct skill sets for internal training and selective recruitment:
Ultimately, macroeconomic tension is a permanent fixture of modern business. While the shockwaves of the last few months have sent tremors through supply chains, fuelled cost inflation, and made private investors jittery, the mid-June breakthrough in US and Iran diplomacy has introduced a cautious wave of optimism.
Finance functions are successfully stepping out of the back office and into the role of strategic gatekeepers. By protecting the balance sheet through automation, abandoning rigid single forecasts, and ensuring capital is only committed when there is sufficient visibility, these leaders are keeping their organisations primed to accelerate the exact moment this macroeconomic fog begins to lift.
If you are looking to strengthen your hiring strategy, speak to Goodman Masson about how we can support your business.
Discover how top finance leaders use scenario modelling and automation to navigate geopolitical and economic volatility, based on the 2026 Shockwave Survey.
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